We spend too much of our lives in ambiguity. So many outcomes, so many possibilities! Even an enumeration of the combinatorics would be a staggering waste of time and so we consent to let things play out. But we don’t completely let go – of course not! We make decisions in the moment, we strive to utilize consistent tactics, even strategies as well as we can. And when we have successes they are the result of our efforts, and yes, some luck. And when we have failures they are bad luck, and yes, maybe poor planning. We can press forward in uncertainty but Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock tells us, “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”
Certainly, the exploration of risk is rewarding and I don’t mean to take the fun out of it! But making data-driven decisions removes the worst outcomes. And less negative risk means less unpredictability and this is a good thing for business. It is predictability that allows us to make wise investments, to outmaneuver the competition, and it is the predictable inflow of money that keeps the lights on. This is why getting to “know” is so vital. Reorganize your processes to identify and weed out the worst variables first. Answer every question amounting to “why this won’t work.” You need not wait until all questions have been answered, but there is a critical mass that should be addressed before safely riding the long tail of uncertainty. But knowing where you stand on the most key factors of success puts you on the threshold of good decision making. If you decide to stop, you can do so early and with good reason. If you need to pivot, you have the wisdom of understanding just how it should be done. And if you should indeed continue on, do it with confidence that comes from really knowing where you stand. The earlier you know, the less risk you take on and the less time you spend
The decision to move forward in light of the data is much more sound than the decision to move forward despite the risks. Get to “know” then make the call.